January 11th, 2010
Carl Bialik, in the Wall Street Journal blog The Daily Fix, wrote last week about decisions made by coaches in bowl games this season. The article was mostly about Nick Saban’s 4th-down decisions in the BCS National Championship Game. He also referred to Idaho’s decision to go for two and the win against Bowling Green instead of going for one and the tie, and used data provided by cfbstats.com to note that teams have been successful 8 out of 14 times in situations similar to Idaho’s. Check it out.
The Count: Saban’s Questionable Calls
January 8th, 2010
The statistics through 01/07/2010 are now available.
January 2nd, 2010
I received an email from Dennis of Mt. Shasta, CA, which alerted me that some of the split statistics were not being calculated correctly. Specifically, the vs. Winning/vs. Non-Winning splits were incorrect. There were a couple of issues that caused this.
First, the vs. Winning/vs. Non-Winning splits were only being updated for teams that played in a bowl game. I had a bug which caused those splits to not be updated for the other teams that did not play in bowl games. This has been corrected.
Second, there was a fundamental problem with how the vs. Winning/vs. Non-Winning splits were being calculated. When calculating the split for games between an FBS team and an FCS team, I was only considering the FCS team’s record against FBS teams rather than the FCS team’s overall record. For example, when calculating California’s split, I considered the Bears’ win against Eastern Washington (FCS) as a win over a non-winning team because Eastern Washington was 0-1 against FBS teams. In fact, Eastern Washington has an 8-4 overall record, so Cal’s win should have been considered a win over a winning team instead.
Unfortunately, I don’t track the statistics (including win-loss record) for FCS teams. Keeping up with just the FBS teams is enough to keep me busy. As a result, I don’t have enough information to properly calculate the vs. Winning/vs. Non-Winning splits when FBS teams play against FCS teams. My solution for now was to modify the definition of the vs. Winning/vs. Non-Winning split to only include games against FBS teams. On each page that includes that split, there is a notation indicating that the split only includes games against FBS teams.
I’m not really happy this solution. I don’t like how this split leaves out some games while the other splits include all games. I think the inconsistency might be confusing. However, I think it’s the best solution for now given the data that I have. Using the complete win-loss records for FCS teams is obviously the better solution, but the amount of work needed to do that may be significant.
Thanks to Dennis for letting me know about the problem.
December 1st, 2009
On November 13, Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly decided to bring QB Tony Pike back from a forearm injury by only putting him into the game once Cincinnati entered the West Virginia red zone. Pike responded by throwing a touchdown pass on each of the two drives in which he entered the game.
Kelly’s novel approach to integrating Pike back into the offense shows how well he knows his starting quarterback. Pike leads the FBS this season with the highest percentage of red zone pass attempts that have resulted in a touchdown (minimum 25 red zone pass attempts). Here are this season’s leaders:
Red Zone Red Zone Red Zone
Player Team Pass Att. TD TD%
+----------------------+-----------------+---------+--------+--------+
Tony Pike Cincinnati 32 15 46.9%
Joe Webb UAB 28 11 39.3%
Sean Canfield Oregon State 44 17 38.6%
Max Hall BYU 55 21 38.2%
Kellen Moore Boise State 71 27 38.0%
Jordan Jefferson LSU 29 11 37.9%
Jonathan Crompton Tennessee 50 18 36.0%
Russell Wilson N.C. State 51 18 35.3%
Rusty Smith Fla. Atlantic 29 10 34.5%
Chris Todd Auburn 27 9 33.3%
Before last Friday’s game against Illinois, 50 percent of Pike’s red zone pass attempts were touchdowns, but after throwing only 4 touchdowns in 10 red zone pass attempts, his percentage dropped to 46.9.
Here are the active career FBS leaders in percentage of red zone pass attempts that have resulted in a touchdown (minimum 50 red zone pass attempts):
Red Zone Red Zone Red Zone
Player Team Pass Att. TD TD%
+----------------------+-----------------+---------+--------+--------+
Sam Bradford Oklahoma 139 52 37.4%
Max Hall BYU 183 65 35.5%
Tony Pike Cincinnati 79 27 34.2%
Kellen Moore Boise State 130 44 33.8%
Russell Wilson N.C. State 89 29 32.6%
Colt McCoy Texas 195 62 31.8%
Sean Canfield Oregon State 96 30 31.3%
Rusty Smith Fla. Atlantic 188 56 29.8%
Austin Davis Southern Miss. 72 21 29.2%
Jerrod Johnson Texas A&M 110 32 29.1%
Tim Tebow Florida 148 43 29.1%
November 30th, 2009
The statistics through 11/28/2009 are now available.
November 24th, 2009
Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett completed passes of 58 and 64 yards against Mississippi State on Saturday, giving him 10 completions this season of 50-plus yards, which leads the FBS. Mallett has 8 completions of 50-plus yards in his last 6 games, with at least one in each game.
Here are the FBS leaders this season in the number of 50-plus yard completions:
Player Team Yr Att 50+
+-----------------+----------------+----+-----+-----+
Ryan Mallett Arkansas SO 328 10
Josh Nesbitt Georgia Tech JR 125 9
Blaine Gabbert Missouri SO 373 8
Trevor Vittatoe UTEP JR 367 7
Jimmy Clausen Notre Dame JR 395 7
Tyler Sheehan Bowling Green SR 497 6
Aaron Opelt Toledo SR 261 6
Levi Brown Troy SR 417 6
Kyle Parker Clemson FR 296 6
The name that immediately jumps out from that list is Josh Nesbitt. Despite having a significantly fewer attempts than the others on the list, Nesbitt is 2nd in the FBS in completions of 50-plus yards. Head coach Paul Johnson’s run-heavy spread option offense obviously opens up opportunities for big passing plays. As a team, Georgia Tech ranks 119th out of 120 FBS teams in the number of passes attempted this season.
Here are the FBS leaders this season in the lowest ratio of attempts per 50-plus yard completion on a minimum of two 50-plus yard completions:
Player Team Yr Att 50+ Att/50+
+-----------------+----------------+----+-----+-----+---------+
Josh Nesbitt Georgia Tech JR 125 9 13.89
Matt Grothe South Florida SR 59 3 19.67
Brian Reader Idaho SO 67 3 22.33
Ricky Dobbs Navy JR 75 3 25.00
Tyler Bass Memphis SO 81 3 27.00
Steven Sheffield Texas Tech JR 125 4 31.25
Ryan Mallett Arkansas SO 328 10 32.80
B.J. Daniels South Florida FR 173 5 34.60
Greg Alexander Hawaii SR 150 4 37.50
Cody Endres Connecticut SO 154 4 38.50
Hat Tip: Whole Hog Sports
November 23rd, 2009
The statistics through 11/21/2009 are now available.
November 19th, 2009
Oregon State sophomore RB Jacquizz Rodgers has not fumbled in his college career. He has had 565 career touches without fumbling, which is the most among active players. For touches, I’m including rushing attempts, receptions, punt returns and kickoff returns.
Here are the active players with the lowest percentage of fumbles on a minimum of 300 career touches.
Player Team Yr Pos Touches Fumbles
+------------------+-----------------+---+----+-------+-------+
Jacquizz Rodgers Oregon State SO RB 565 0
Victor Anderson Louisville SO RB 315 0
Andre Dixon Connecticut SR RB 382 1
Keiland Williams LSU SR RB 340 1
Jake Sharp Kansas SR RB 522 2
DaJuane Collins Toledo SR RB 484 2
Mark Ingram Alabama SO RB 370 2
Mikell Simpson Virginia SR RB 366 2
Reggie Arnold Arkansas State SR RB 712 4
Dwayne Priest Eastern Michigan JR RB 345 2
Deonte` Jackson Idaho JR RB 517 3
At the other end of spectrum, here are the active players with the most career fumbles, regardless of the number of touches.
Player Team Yr Pos Touches Fumbles
+------------------+-----------------+---+----+-------+-------+
Thaddeus Lewis Duke SR QB 347 37
Juice Williams Illinois SR QB 613 32
Josh Nesbitt Georgia Tech JR QB 444 32
Corey Leonard Arkansas State SR QB 511 29
Donovan Porterie New Mexico SR QB 183 27
Colt McCoy Texas SR QB 399 25
Max Hall BYU SR QB 173 25
Zac Robinson Oklahoma State SR QB 403 24
Todd Reesing Kansas SR QB 318 24
Diondre Borel Utah State JR QB 340 22
Adam Weber Minnesota JR QB 333 22
November 17th, 2009
We’re told that every coach has a two-point conversion chart that he uses during a game to determine whether to go for a one- or two-point conversion after a touchdown. I don’t know if coaches have the chart memorized, if they keep it folded up in their back pocket, or if they have an assistant hold it for them. Anyway, I’ve always assumed that the chart tells coaches to go for the one-point conversion when they’re ahead by 27 points — if the chart even goes up that high — since the one-point conversion is the usual decision.
Stanford head coach Jim Harbaugh must have his own version of the two-point conversion chart, and it tells him to go for two when leading by 27 points against USC. That was his decision on Saturday when Stanford scored a touchdown to take a 48-21 lead over USC late in the 4th quarter. The conversion attempt failed when Stepfan Taylor’s rush attempt was stopped short.
I decided to find out how many times since 2005 a team has attempted a two-point conversion when leading by 27 points or more. Here is the list:
Team Opponent Date Score Lead Player (Position) - Note
+-------------+-------------+-----------+------+-----+------------------------------+
Hawaii Idaho 10/28/2006 61-10 51 Funaki (holder)
Boise St. New Mex. St. 10/07/2007 51-0 51 Bissell (holder)
TCU S.F. Austin 09/06/2008 58-7 51 Kerley (holder)
Florida St. Rice 09/23/2006 53-7 46 Piurowski (TE) - PAT blocked
New Mex. St. La. Tech 12/02/2006 50-9 41 Kaufman (holder)
Wisconsin Minnesota 10/14/2006 41-3 38 DeBauche (holder)
Texas A&M La.-Lafayette 09/09/2006 44-7 37 Schroeder (holder)
Baylor N'western St. 09/26/2009 47-10 37 Stone (kicker)
Utah Wyoming 10/11/2008 40-7 33 Godfrey (holder)
LSU Miss. St. 09/30/2006 48-17 31 Flynn (holder) - bad snap
Tulsa Rice 10/15/2005 34-7 27 Keopple (holder)
California Stanford 11/22/2008 30-3 27 Longshore (holder) - PAT fake?
Stanford USC 11/14/2009 48-21 27 Taylor (RB)
Virginia Indiana 10/10/2009 27-0 27 Jarrett (kicker)
I was surprised by this list because I did not expect to find very many two-point attempts that qualified, especially with such large leads. When I started analyzing the conversions in the list, I realized that many of these two-point conversions were probably not planned, but occurred because of a bad snap, a muffed hold, or a blocked kick, where the holder or kicker ended up trying to get two points on a broken play. Most of the play-by-plays did not indicate why a two-point attempt was made, but I think it’s reasonable to assume that if the holder or kicker attempted the two-point conversion rush or pass, given the score at the time, it was most likely not planned.
The two-point attempt on the list that I’m not sure about is the pass attempt by Cal holder Nate Longshore when leading 30-3 against Stanford in 2008. I watched a video of the play (a link to which I cannot find now), and it looked to me like Longshore was executing a planned fake of a one-point attempt. I found that the question of whether Longshore’s play was a fake or not has been the subject of some debate.
I think it’s safe to say that Stanford’s two-point conversion attempt against USC is the biggest lead for a deliberate, offense-on-the-field, 2-point conversion attempt since 2005. Given the bad blood that now exists — or got worse — between USC head coach Pete Carroll and Harbaugh, we may see that mark broken in the future.
November 16th, 2009
The statistics through 11/14/2009 are now available.