Carl Bialik, in the Wall Street Journal blog The Daily Fix, wrote last week about decisions made by coaches in bowl games this season.  The article was mostly about Nick Saban’s 4th-down decisions in the BCS National Championship Game.  He also referred to Idaho’s decision to go for two and the win against Bowling Green instead of going for one and the tie, and used data provided by cfbstats.com to note that teams have been successful 8 out of 14 times in situations similar to Idaho’s.  Check it out.

The Count: Saban’s Questionable Calls

The statistics through 01/07/2010 are now available.

I received an email from Dennis of Mt. Shasta, CA, which alerted me that some of the split statistics were not being calculated correctly. Specifically, the vs. Winning/vs. Non-Winning splits were incorrect. There were a couple of issues that caused this.

First, the vs. Winning/vs. Non-Winning splits were only being updated for teams that played in a bowl game. I had a bug which caused those splits to not be updated for the other teams that did not play in bowl games. This has been corrected.

Second, there was a fundamental problem with how the vs. Winning/vs. Non-Winning splits were being calculated. When calculating the split for games between an FBS team and an FCS team, I was only considering the FCS team’s record against FBS teams rather than the FCS team’s overall record. For example, when calculating California’s split, I considered the Bears’ win against Eastern Washington (FCS) as a win over a non-winning team because Eastern Washington was 0-1 against FBS teams. In fact, Eastern Washington has an 8-4 overall record, so Cal’s win should have been considered a win over a winning team instead.

Unfortunately, I don’t track the statistics (including win-loss record) for FCS teams. Keeping up with just the FBS teams is enough to keep me busy. As a result, I don’t have enough information to properly calculate the vs. Winning/vs. Non-Winning splits when FBS teams play against FCS teams. My solution for now was to modify the definition of the vs. Winning/vs. Non-Winning split to only include games against FBS teams. On each page that includes that split, there is a notation indicating that the split only includes games against FBS teams.

I’m not really happy this solution. I don’t like how this split leaves out some games while the other splits include all games. I think the inconsistency might be confusing. However, I think it’s the best solution for now given the data that I have. Using the complete win-loss records for FCS teams is obviously the better solution, but the amount of work needed to do that may be significant.

Thanks to Dennis for letting me know about the problem.

On November 13, Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly decided to bring QB Tony Pike back from a forearm injury by only putting him into the game once Cincinnati entered the West Virginia red zone.  Pike responded by throwing a touchdown pass on each of the two drives in which he entered the game.

Kelly’s novel approach to integrating Pike back into the offense shows how well he knows his starting quarterback.  Pike leads the FBS this season with the highest percentage of red zone pass attempts that have resulted in a touchdown (minimum 25 red zone pass attempts).  Here are this season’s leaders:

                                          Red Zone  Red Zone Red Zone
 Player                 Team              Pass Att.    TD      TD%
+----------------------+-----------------+---------+--------+--------+
 Tony Pike              Cincinnati           32        15     46.9%
 Joe Webb               UAB                  28        11     39.3%
 Sean Canfield          Oregon State         44        17     38.6%
 Max Hall               BYU                  55        21     38.2%
 Kellen Moore           Boise State          71        27     38.0%
 Jordan Jefferson       LSU                  29        11     37.9%
 Jonathan Crompton      Tennessee            50        18     36.0%
 Russell Wilson         N.C. State           51        18     35.3%
 Rusty Smith            Fla. Atlantic        29        10     34.5%
 Chris Todd             Auburn               27         9     33.3%
 

Before last Friday’s game against Illinois, 50 percent of Pike’s red zone pass attempts were touchdowns, but after throwing only 4 touchdowns in 10 red zone pass attempts, his percentage dropped to 46.9.

Here are the active career FBS leaders in percentage of red zone pass attempts that have resulted in a touchdown (minimum 50 red zone pass attempts):

                                          Red Zone  Red Zone Red Zone
 Player                 Team              Pass Att.    TD      TD%
+----------------------+-----------------+---------+--------+--------+
 Sam Bradford           Oklahoma            139        52     37.4%
 Max Hall               BYU                 183        65     35.5%
 Tony Pike              Cincinnati           79        27     34.2%
 Kellen Moore           Boise State         130        44     33.8%
 Russell Wilson         N.C. State           89        29     32.6%
 Colt McCoy             Texas               195        62     31.8%
 Sean Canfield          Oregon State         96        30     31.3%
 Rusty Smith            Fla. Atlantic       188        56     29.8%
 Austin Davis           Southern Miss.       72        21     29.2%
 Jerrod Johnson         Texas A&M           110        32     29.1%
 Tim Tebow              Florida             148        43     29.1%
 

The statistics through 11/28/2009 are now available.

Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett completed passes of 58 and 64 yards against Mississippi State on Saturday, giving him 10 completions this season of 50-plus yards, which leads the FBS.  Mallett has 8 completions of 50-plus yards in his last 6 games, with at least one in each game.

Here are the FBS leaders this season in the number of 50-plus yard completions:

 Player            Team              Yr   Att   50+
+-----------------+----------------+----+-----+-----+
 Ryan Mallett      Arkansas          SO   328   10
 Josh Nesbitt      Georgia Tech      JR   125    9
 Blaine Gabbert    Missouri          SO   373    8
 Trevor Vittatoe   UTEP              JR   367    7
 Jimmy Clausen     Notre Dame        JR   395    7
 Tyler Sheehan     Bowling Green     SR   497    6
 Aaron Opelt       Toledo            SR   261    6
 Levi Brown        Troy              SR   417    6
 Kyle Parker       Clemson           FR   296    6
 

The name that immediately jumps out from that list is Josh Nesbitt.  Despite having a significantly fewer attempts than the others on the list, Nesbitt is 2nd in the FBS in completions of 50-plus yards.  Head coach Paul Johnson’s run-heavy spread option offense obviously opens up opportunities for big passing plays.    As a team, Georgia Tech ranks 119th out of 120 FBS teams in the number of passes attempted this season.

Here are the FBS leaders this season in the lowest ratio of attempts per 50-plus yard completion on  a minimum of two 50-plus yard completions:

 Player            Team              Yr   Att   50+   Att/50+
+-----------------+----------------+----+-----+-----+---------+
 Josh Nesbitt      Georgia Tech      JR   125    9     13.89
 Matt Grothe       South Florida     SR    59    3     19.67
 Brian Reader      Idaho             SO    67    3     22.33
 Ricky Dobbs       Navy              JR    75    3     25.00
 Tyler Bass        Memphis           SO    81    3     27.00
 Steven Sheffield  Texas Tech        JR   125    4     31.25
 Ryan Mallett      Arkansas          SO   328   10     32.80
 B.J. Daniels      South Florida     FR   173    5     34.60
 Greg Alexander    Hawaii            SR   150    4     37.50
 Cody Endres       Connecticut       SO   154    4     38.50
 

Hat Tip: Whole Hog Sports

The statistics through 11/21/2009 are now available.

Oregon State sophomore RB Jacquizz Rodgers has not fumbled in his college career.   He has had 565 career touches without fumbling, which is the most among active players.   For touches, I’m including rushing attempts, receptions, punt returns and kickoff returns.

Here are the active players with the lowest percentage of fumbles on a minimum of 300 career touches.

 Player             Team              Yr  Pos  Touches Fumbles
+------------------+-----------------+---+----+-------+-------+
 Jacquizz Rodgers   Oregon State      SO   RB    565      0
 Victor Anderson    Louisville        SO   RB    315      0
 Andre Dixon        Connecticut       SR   RB    382      1
 Keiland Williams   LSU               SR   RB    340      1
 Jake Sharp         Kansas            SR   RB    522      2
 DaJuane Collins    Toledo            SR   RB    484      2
 Mark Ingram        Alabama           SO   RB    370      2
 Mikell Simpson     Virginia          SR   RB    366      2
 Reggie Arnold      Arkansas State    SR   RB    712      4
 Dwayne Priest      Eastern Michigan  JR   RB    345      2
 Deonte` Jackson    Idaho             JR   RB    517      3
 

At the other end of spectrum, here are the active players with the most career fumbles, regardless of the number of touches.

 Player             Team              Yr  Pos  Touches Fumbles
+------------------+-----------------+---+----+-------+-------+
 Thaddeus Lewis     Duke              SR   QB    347     37
 Juice Williams     Illinois          SR   QB    613     32
 Josh Nesbitt       Georgia Tech      JR   QB    444     32
 Corey Leonard      Arkansas State    SR   QB    511     29
 Donovan Porterie   New Mexico        SR   QB    183     27
 Colt McCoy         Texas             SR   QB    399     25
 Max Hall           BYU               SR   QB    173     25
 Zac Robinson       Oklahoma State    SR   QB    403     24
 Todd Reesing       Kansas            SR   QB    318     24
 Diondre Borel      Utah State        JR   QB    340     22
 Adam Weber         Minnesota         JR   QB    333     22
 

We’re told that every coach has a two-point conversion chart that he uses during a game to determine whether to go for a one- or two-point conversion after a touchdown.  I don’t know if coaches have the chart memorized, if they keep it folded up in their back pocket, or if they have an assistant hold it for them.   Anyway, I’ve always assumed that the chart tells coaches to go for the one-point conversion when they’re ahead by 27 points — if the chart even goes up that high — since the one-point conversion is the usual decision.

Stanford head coach Jim Harbaugh must have his own version of the two-point conversion chart, and it tells him to go for two when leading by 27 points against USC.  That was his decision on Saturday when Stanford scored a touchdown to take a 48-21 lead over USC late in the 4th quarter.  The conversion attempt failed when Stepfan Taylor’s rush attempt was stopped short.

I decided to find out how many times since 2005 a team has attempted a two-point conversion when leading by 27 points or more.  Here is the list:

 Team          Opponent      Date        Score  Lead  Player (Position) - Note
+-------------+-------------+-----------+------+-----+------------------------------+
 Hawaii        Idaho         10/28/2006  61-10   51   Funaki (holder)
 Boise St.     New Mex. St.  10/07/2007  51-0    51   Bissell (holder)
 TCU           S.F. Austin   09/06/2008  58-7    51   Kerley (holder)
 Florida St.   Rice          09/23/2006  53-7    46   Piurowski (TE) - PAT blocked
 New Mex. St.  La. Tech      12/02/2006  50-9    41   Kaufman (holder)
 Wisconsin     Minnesota     10/14/2006  41-3    38   DeBauche (holder)
 Texas A&M     La.-Lafayette 09/09/2006  44-7    37   Schroeder (holder)
 Baylor	       N'western St. 09/26/2009  47-10   37   Stone (kicker)
 Utah          Wyoming       10/11/2008  40-7    33   Godfrey (holder)
 LSU           Miss. St.     09/30/2006  48-17   31   Flynn (holder) - bad snap
 Tulsa         Rice          10/15/2005  34-7    27   Keopple (holder)
 California    Stanford      11/22/2008  30-3    27   Longshore (holder) - PAT fake?
 Stanford      USC           11/14/2009  48-21   27   Taylor (RB)
 Virginia      Indiana       10/10/2009  27-0    27   Jarrett (kicker)
 

I was surprised by this list because I did not expect to find very many two-point attempts that qualified, especially with such large leads.  When I started analyzing the conversions in the list, I realized that many of these two-point conversions were probably not planned, but occurred because of a bad snap, a muffed hold, or a blocked kick, where the holder or kicker ended up trying to get two points on a broken play.  Most of the play-by-plays did not indicate why a two-point attempt was made, but I think it’s reasonable to assume that if the holder or kicker attempted the two-point conversion rush or pass, given the score at the time, it was most likely not planned.

The two-point attempt on the list that I’m not sure about is the pass attempt by Cal holder Nate Longshore when leading 30-3 against Stanford in 2008.  I watched a video of the play (a link to which I cannot find now), and it looked to me like Longshore was executing a planned fake of a one-point attempt.  I found that the question of whether Longshore’s play was a fake or not has been the subject of some debate.

I think it’s safe to say that Stanford’s two-point conversion attempt against USC is the biggest lead for a deliberate, offense-on-the-field, 2-point conversion attempt since 2005.  Given the bad blood that now exists — or got worse — between USC head coach Pete Carroll and Harbaugh, we may see that mark broken in the future.

The statistics through 11/14/2009 are now available.